UK Performance Review Q1 2026

Bottom line

 We are missing our target by 47.9% (€1.906m actual vs. €3.656m target) because we are generating colder leads, leaking massive traffic at checkout, and relying entirely on a shrinking pool of fast-converting, high-intent buyers.

Unit margins are holding and sales-led revenue is up 45%. When the right leads arrive, we close. The issues are upstream.

4 data caveats
March is incomplete. March 2026 is not comparable with a full March 2025.
Data period. Most data runs from 1 January 2025 to 17 March 2026. Monthly exports are not pro-rated.
Cohort maturity. Q1 2026 lead cohorts are still young. Final conversion rates will be higher than current figures, though we do not yet know by how much.
Currency. Financial data is reported in euros (€). Consumer-facing UK prices are shown in pounds sterling (£).
Q1 Net Revenue vs target
€1.906m vs €3.656m
-47.9% versus company target. Realistic target: €3.61m (-47.2%)
Q1 Net Revenue YoY
-11.8%
€2.162m in Q1 2025 to €1.906m in Q1 2026
Sales-led revenue
€1.23m
+45% YoY, with 1,285 delivery orders (+55%)
Current Q1 CM3
€525k
27.6% on recognised net revenue, Q1 incomplete
Lead cohort conversion
0.5% vs 5.4% LY
Average final cohort CVR, Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025

tl;dr

Unit economics

  • CM1 flat at €1.251m, CM2 up 1.4% YoY to €1.104m
  • CM3 down to €525kmarketing cost up €191k to €579k (March incomplete)
  • Margin on recognised orders holding better than topline suggests

Demand quality and conversion

  • Overall CVR 0.05% vs 0.12% LY.
  • Every stage weaker: session→cart -29.7%, cart→checkout -24.5%, checkout→order -22.9%
  • Lead cohort CVR fell from 5.4% to 0.5%: clear sign of colder demand converting less
  • Google IS halved: 48.59% → 24.24%
  • Positive: sales-led revenue €1.23m (+45% YoY)

Campaign cadence

  • Extended lead gen phases have not translated into enough later lead revenue
  • Extended phases in FY25 became ineffective for the UK
  • Lead revenue share: 68.2% in Jan → 41.6% in Mar

Low-quality Meta volume

  • Meta generated €200.5k attributed revenue in Q1
  • 74% of Meta leads were unscored, COLD or COLD+
  • HOT leads: 7.7% of volume but 44.0% of Meta-attributed revenue

Price and customer training

  • Units 457→247, ASP €2,965→€4,228, no sub-£3,000 option
  • Below 18% discount: CVR ≤0.02%. Above 20%: 0.05–0.24%. Customers are waiting for sales
  • Not pure sticker shock as only 13.5% of closed-lost is price/no budget

Caveats

  • March incomplete, sale only just started
  • Glass shipping delays holding back recognised revenue (Glass Walls grew €175k→€268k)
  • Wet winter amplified softness, but root cause is lead quality and funnel conversion

My read on what is happening

1

We're not creating sale-ready demand

  • Scored leads down from 11,155 (Oct 2025) to 2,337 (Mar 2026)
  • COLD CPL: €22.59→€42.45. HOT CPL: €23.01→€61.14
  • Less volume, more expensive, lower quality
2

Our funnel has a huge leak

  • Complete Checkout: 12.8% → 9.9% (Q1), March down to 8.6%
  • Cold audiences may explain cart browsing, but the IC→Order drop is significant
  • Root cause analysis needed from e-commerce
3

We are mostly converting people that would have bought quickly anyway

  • Median days from Lead → Order has collapsed: 20 (Oct 2025) → 1 (Mar 2026)
  • Two takes: (1) remaining converters were always high-intent, we are no longer converting further-out leads, (2) colder leads have a longer cycle the data has not yet revealed
  • Jan 2026 cohort CVR reads 0.7% at ~75 days vs 4.0% for Jan 2025 at full maturity
4

We have priced ourselves into a narrower market

  • ASP up 42.6% to €4,228 while units down 46%. No sub-£3,000 pergola option
  • Discounting down 30% YoY — below 18% average discount, CVR drops to 0.02%
  • Higher prices and lower discounts compound the colder demand problem. Fewer people can buy impulsively at these price points

1. Profitability and spend

The top-line miss can make the margin picture look worse than it is.

CM1 is 65.6% and CM2 57.9%, versus 58.1% and 50.3% in Q1 2025. Deterioration only appears at CM3, where marketing cost rose by €191k to €579k. This is a demand-conversion problem first, CM3 problem second.

The spend mix has shifted: Google is now 50.1% of gross channel spend (was 25.5%), Meta down from 67.3% to 48.7%. We shifted more into search and increased upper-funnel Meta prospecting through Evergreen, but conversion did not hold up enough to protect CM3.

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Source: Profitability by month.csv. March 2026 is incomplete.

Show data used in this view
MonthNet revenueCM1CM1 %CM2CM2 %Marketing costCM3CM3 %
Jan 25€591,898€330,71855.9%€285,04748.2%€109,855€175,19229.6%
Feb 25€780,901€441,72156.6%€381,27248.8%€105,578€275,69435.3%
Mar 25€788,931€483,19361.2%€421,72253.5%€171,825€249,89631.7%
Jan 26€680,748€450,70966.2%€397,96058.5%€220,241€177,71926.1%
Feb 26€819,762€539,56165.8%€476,41758.1%€246,794€229,62328.0%
Mar 26€405,398€260,51364.3%€229,29856.6%€111,502€117,79629.1%
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Source: Profitability by month.csv.

Show data used in this view
MonthNet revenueCM1CM1 %CM2CM2 %Marketing costCM3CM3 %
Jan 25€591,898€330,71855.9%€285,04748.2%€109,855€175,19229.6%
Feb 25€780,901€441,72156.6%€381,27248.8%€105,578€275,69435.3%
Mar 25€788,931€483,19361.2%€421,72253.5%€171,825€249,89631.7%
Apr 25€1,368,263€915,74566.9%€809,66759.2%€348,811€460,85533.7%
May 25€999,736€671,51867.2%€593,54659.4%€229,538€364,00836.4%
Jun 25€813,741€541,18466.5%€478,28658.8%€218,036€260,25032.0%
Jul 25€751,350€509,12667.8%€451,05860.0%€210,480€240,57832.0%
Aug 25€741,781€497,78767.1%€440,36059.4%€217,048€223,31330.1%
Sep 25€759,460€492,35164.8%€433,71657.1%€262,194€171,52222.6%
Oct 25€544,529€351,80564.6%€309,75556.9%€369,950€-60,195-11.1%
Nov 25€1,325,579€830,55962.7%€728,27254.9%€293,257€435,01532.8%
Dec 25€326,451€204,10662.5%€178,95354.8%€76,028€102,92431.5%
Jan 26€680,748€450,70966.2%€397,96058.5%€220,241€177,71926.1%
Feb 26€819,762€539,56165.8%€476,41758.1%€246,794€229,62328.0%
Mar 26€405,398€260,51364.3%€229,29856.6%€111,502€117,79629.1%
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Source: marketing fact_marketing_costs 2026-03-18T0956.csv and Profitability by month.csv.

Show data used in this view
MonthMetaGoogleInfluencerOtherAttributable / CM3 Marketing Cost
Jan 25€920,057€236,990€192€90,598€109,855
Feb 25€1,047,193€401,887€9,398€128,049€105,578
Mar 25€1,566,432€697,282€3,660€145,325€171,825
Jan 26€1,087,513€930,567€27,276€0€220,241
Feb 26€971,599€1,069,210€37,059€0€246,794
Mar 26€738,542€882,987€4,044€0€111,502
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Source: marketing fact_marketing_costs 2026-03-18T0956.csv and Profitability by month.csv.

Show data used in this view
MonthMetaGoogleInfluencerOtherAttributable / CM3 Marketing Cost
Jan 25€920,057€236,990€192€90,598€109,855
Feb 25€1,047,193€401,887€9,398€128,049€105,578
Mar 25€1,566,432€697,282€3,660€145,325€171,825
Apr 25€2,738,470€1,125,530€22,360€126,662€348,811
May 25€2,565,688€1,206,201€36,549€107,678€229,538
Jun 25€2,192,222€1,229,475€11,732€131,965€218,036
Jul 25€1,817,057€1,094,332€32,919€70,819€210,480
Aug 25€1,407,783€1,400,970€14,954€0€217,048
Sep 25€1,310,342€1,186,817€4,725€0€262,194
Oct 25€2,098,142€1,383,223€3,426€17,927€369,950
Nov 25€2,316,832€2,380,932€15,064€31,558€293,257
Dec 25€727,546€630,665€20,672€7,005€76,028
Jan 26€1,087,513€930,567€27,276€0€220,241
Feb 26€971,599€1,069,210€37,059€0€246,794
Mar 26€738,542€882,987€4,044€0€111,502

2. Campaign cadence and Evergreen setup

We lengthened lead gen because one week was not enough for campaigns to optimise, but the longer setup has not produced enough later lead revenue. The UK still sees rapid degradation once a sale runs past its peak window, and right now lead generation is not creating enough qualified demand that converts when the sale starts.

Evergreen is directionally right — we need a bridge between sale events. The sourcing split is 81% Meta and 19% Google, so I would not kill it. We started at £150, then £150 plus a heater, which helped volume but does not feel exclusive enough. I would rework it into true early access one or two days before the Friday sale, plus VIP and the heater, so it feels different from standard always-on lead generation.

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Source: weekly campaign pattern supplied in the context brief. Implied CM3 is calculated from weekly revenue and the supplied CM3 margin percentage.

Show data used in this view
WeekPhaseRevenue (€k)Implied CM3 (€k)
W1LG / EA€55.8k€12.2k
W2Sale€98.8k€18.9k
W3LG€75.9k€24.8k
W4LG / EA€218.6k€44.6k
W5Sale€298.4k€68.6k
W6Extended Sale€267.1k€48.1k
W7LG€145.9k€33.6k
W8LG / EA€123.5k€21.4k
W9Sale€244.6k€42.8k
W10LG€149.8k€26.1k
W11LG / EA€165.4k€29.4k

3. Conversion funnel and channel mix

The website funnel is where the miss sits. Overall CVR is down 59.1% and every stage is weaker — traffic alone does not explain it. Google impression share has fallen from 48.59% to 24.24% (March: 12.58%). Even after shifting more budget into search, we are not capturing enough demand.

Channel mix explains why the visible picture can look misleading. Meta drove 184,423 sessions but its last-touch CVR rounds to zero at 0.0005%. That should not be read as no value — Meta is doing awareness and lead generation work that closes elsewhere. Direct and Email show cleaner last-touch conversion because they sit later in the journey.

A significant share of Meta and Google leads convert through Klaviyo email flows. Last-touch attribution credits email, not the original paid source, so Meta and Google are likely undervalued on a last-touch basis. Lead-attributed revenue (tracing back to original source regardless of final click) is the better lens, and the one used in section 4.


4. Lead engine, attribution and downstream quality

Meta generated 12,072 Q1 leads at €17 per lead versus Google Generic at €94, Direct at €175, Bing at €286. That does not mean cut Meta — HOT leads converted at 0.8–2.6% by month and produced nearly half of Meta-attributed revenue. The lower-temperature cohorts did not convert meaningfully. Google Generic's high-temperature cohorts are even stronger. The question is not whether Meta works — it is whether we are buying enough of the Meta that works.

Scored leads have fallen 79.0% from October to March and CPL has gone the wrong way across most temperatures. The content and PDP journey compounds this — colder leads need more persuasion, but the site is built for high-intent visitors. A colder audience will bounce or stall.

Conclusion

The system is producing colder demand, monetising too little of it downstream, and relying too heavily on the small slice of high-intent demand that still converts quickly.

Open larger chart

Source: marketing fact_marketing_lead_attribution 2026-03-18T1842.csv.

Show data used
Lead sourceLeadsAttributed revenueRevenue per lead
Meta12,072€200,503€17
Google Generic2,569€241,400€94
Google Brand303€25,413€84
Direct485€85,025€175
Bing111€31,722€286
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Source: marketing fact_marketing_lead_attribution 2026-03-18T1842.csv. Lead-attributed revenue includes journeys that later closed through owned channels.

Show data used

Meta

TemperatureLeadsLead shareRevenueRevenue per leadLead CVR
UNSCORED4,44936.9%€18,634€40.1%
COLD3,17226.3%€25,686€80.2%
COLD +1,37411.4%€11,881€90.2%
WARM7316.1%€2,642€40.3%
WARM +1,33611.1%€53,446€400.5%
HOT9247.7%€88,214€951.4%
HOT +860.7%€0€00.0%

Google Generic

TemperatureLeadsLead shareRevenueRevenue per leadLead CVR
UNSCORED1,14144.4%€12,193€110.1%
COLD63924.9%€27,293€430.6%
COLD +2309.0%€0€00.0%
WARM1054.1%€0€00.0%
WARM +2037.9%€78,163€3854.4%
HOT2218.6%€71,227€3224.6%
HOT +301.2%€52,524€1,75120.0%
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Source: MQL Priority by time.csv.

Show data used in this view
MonthTotal scored leads
Oct 2511,155
Nov 256,225
Dec 25969
Jan 263,348
Feb 262,622
Mar 262,337
MonthCOLDCOLD +WARMWARM +HOTHOT +
Oct 25€23€13€14€23€23€66
Nov 25€27€18€22€21€26€40
Dec 25€86€74€46€81€111€57
Jan 26€35€49€41€67€54€55
Feb 26€56€47€34€121€73€111
Mar 26€42€37€37€47€61€74
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Source: MQL Priority by time.csv.

Show data used in this view
MonthTotal scored leads
Oct 2511,155
Nov 256,225
Dec 25969
Jan 263,348
Feb 262,622
Mar 262,337
MonthCOLDCOLD +WARMWARM +HOTHOT +
Oct 25€23€13€14€23€23€66
Nov 25€27€18€22€21€26€40
Dec 25€86€74€46€81€111€57
Jan 26€35€49€41€67€54€55
Feb 26€56€47€34€121€73€111
Mar 26€42€37€37€47€61€74
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Source: MQL Priority by time.csv.

Show data used
MonthCOLDCOLD +WARMWARM +HOTHOT +
Oct 250.8%0.3%0.3%0.6%1.1%4.2%
Nov 251.0%0.4%0.2%0.9%1.5%12.5%
Dec 252.7%0.0%0.0%2.1%1.3%11.1%
Jan 260.6%0.4%0.4%1.6%1.3%0.0%
Feb 260.6%0.0%0.4%1.5%3.0%12.2%
Mar 260.1%0.0%0.0%0.3%1.8%1.6%
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Source: Lead vs Non-Lead Revenue.csv.

Show data used
MonthLead revenueLead shareNon-lead revenue
Jan 25€347,07257.7%€254,185
Feb 25€341,15443.7%€439,747
Mar 25€496,93663.0%€291,995
Apr 25€885,61564.7%€482,648
May 25€625,57762.6%€374,159
Jun 25€511,49262.9%€302,249
Jul 25€342,75045.6%€408,600
Aug 25€383,58951.7%€358,192
Sep 25€400,16153.1%€352,917
Oct 25€329,46159.8%€221,450
Nov 25€828,78363.0%€486,334
Dec 25€173,49851.5%€163,415
Jan 26€464,37268.2%€216,376
Feb 26€392,00347.8%€427,758
Mar 26€165,82941.6%€233,016
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Source: 7, 30, 60, 90 day Conversion Rate Development by Cohort.csv.

Show data used
Lead monthFinal cohort CVR30-day CVR
Jan 254.0%3.2%
Feb 258.2%6.4%
Mar 254.0%3.1%
Apr 251.3%1.2%
May 251.6%1.1%
Jun 252.3%1.7%
Jul 252.3%1.6%
Aug 253.1%2.5%
Sep 251.9%1.6%
Oct 250.6%0.4%
Nov 250.6%0.5%
Dec 251.2%0.8%
Jan 260.7%0.6%
Feb 260.6%0.6%
Mar 260.3%0.3%
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Source: Days from Lead Creation to Order.csv.

Show data used
Lead monthAverage days to orderMedian days to order
Jan 2530.86.0
Feb 2515.65.0
Mar 2535.312.0
Apr 259.34.0
May 2528.67.0
Jun 2527.94.0
Jul 2521.99.0
Aug 2526.08.0
Sep 2520.05.0
Oct 2525.520.0
Nov 2524.211.0
Dec 2524.318.0
Jan 2611.29.0
Feb 268.05.0
Mar 262.71.0

5. Product mix, pricing and urgency

The product mix has moved up. Units down 46% but ASP up 42.6%, driven by the shift towards Sundream and Custom plus reduced discounting, not a margin problem.

Two views: the series view shows the S2 to S3 transition, while the product-line view isolates the ongoing lines (Standard, Sundream, Skydance, Custom, add-ons). Conservatory is excluded — launch too recent to compare.

Price sensitivity is real. Below 18% average discount, CVR sits at 0.02% or lower. Above 20%, it jumps to 0.05–0.24%. Combined with the higher opening price and no sub-£3,000 option, customers are waiting for sales. The answer is not to panic on margin but to tighten event structure and urgency.

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Source: Products Heatmap Over Time - 2025-01-01 - 2026-03-18.csv. Product-line view removes S1 and excludes residual 2026 clearance from Sundream so the ongoing line comparison is cleaner.

Show data used in this view
Product lineQ1 2025 revenueQ1 2026 revenue
Standard Pergola€401,227€205,676
Sundream€457,698€463,661
Skydance€169,840€162,500
Custom€58,171€185,014
Glass Walls€174,739€268,186
Screens€300,134€188,574
LED€22,539€23,513
Heaters€8,290€14,153
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Source: Products Heatmap Over Time - 2025-01-01 - 2026-03-18.csv. S1 and Conservatory are excluded from the series view to keep the transition readable.

Show data used in this view
SeriesQ1 2025 revenueQ1 2026 revenue
S2€1,047,948€21,956
S3€58,171€1,029,206
Accessory / Other€422,594€535,797
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Source: Products Heatmap Over Time - 2025-01-01 - 2026-03-18.csv. Conservatory is excluded.

Show data used in this view
PeriodPergola unitsAverage selling pricePergola revenue
Q1 2025457€2,965€1,354,992
Q1 2026247€4,228€1,044,409

6. March and other context I would keep front of mind

March is incomplete with the sale only just started. Run rate is ~€22.5k/day — if the sale week lands between €200k and €250k, March ends -17% to -23% versus 2025, not the much worse raw gap visible mid-month. The south has had a wetter winter than the sunny 2025 benchmark, and glass shipping delays are holding back recognised revenue. Neither explains the whole miss, but both matter for how we read Q2.

Returns are not the issue. Internal analysis in December showed returns value down 32% YoY and compensation down from £8.5k to £4k. Much of what appears as a "return" is actually order modifications — customers cancelling and reordering to change specs or add products. Closed-lost points to qualification, timing and follow-up, not refusal to pay.

52% of first-time orders now go out with accessories, and we have seen significant growth in Glass Walls (€175k to €268k, +53.5%) and Screens. We were unable to ship glass for the large majority of Q1, but shipments have now arrived, allowing us to recognise the revenue.


7. Prioritised recovery plan

The plan is split into two phases. Do now is what we are changing this cycle. Do next is the structural work that follows.

Do now
Complete full checkout root cause analysis with E-Comm
Why it matters
Checkout-to-order CVR has fallen from 12.8% to 9.9% for Q1, and March is tracking at 8.6%. The drops are consistent at every stage of the funnel, and Sales is converting leads into revenue at 45% above last year. That suggests something in the checkout experience itself could be contributing.
P1
High
Owner: Ammar · Support: Rodion
Deliverables
  • Confirm with E-Comm whether any changes were deployed to the checkout flow, payment provider, or shipping/tax display during the period
  • Review all event tracking at each stage of the bottom-of-funnel: address entry, payment method selection, payment submission, confirmation
  • Device and browser split analysis to identify whether the drop is concentrated on mobile or specific browsers
  • Payment type and error log review: categorise failures by type (declined, timeout, 3DS abandonment, address validation)
  • MS Clarity session recording and heatmap review on checkout pages
  • Pull together a hypothesis alongside Rodion and deliver a recommendations report with prioritised fixes within two weeks
Reset the campaign cadence
Why it matters
The extended lead generation period is not translating into later lead revenue. Lead revenue share has fallen from 68.2% in January to 41.6% in March.
P2
High
Owner: Emily
Deliverables
  • Shorten lead generation to one week
  • Start Early Access mid-week with genuine early access
  • A/B test a two-week sale phase after reviewing the customer journey and email touchpoints
  • Update the campaign calendar
  • Confirm Marketing can support the change
  • Weekly reporting from Emily on Sales performance per phase
Rebuild the Evergreen setup with lower-funnel targeting
Why it matters
Evergreen went too far top of funnel. We did not have the content or journey to nurture the leads it generated. We then bolted on sale mechanics, which does not work either.
P3
Medium to high
Owner: Emily
Deliverables
  • Run Evergreen alongside campaigns and switch messaging as we enter each sale phase
  • Broaden the offer: heater, £150 off, exclusive VIP benefits
  • Open Early Access mid-week to pull revenue into non-sale days. Keep lead signup open.
  • Simplify the landing page to a singular goal: sign up
  • Build mid-funnel content: quiz (draft ready), buyer's guide, customer galleries, video testimonials
  • Review nurture sequences for focus
Do next
Reallocate budget on downstream yield and lead quality
Why it matters
74% of Q1 Meta leads were UNSCORED, COLD or COLD+. Google Generic produces 5.5x the revenue per lead. Even attributing 81% of Klaviyo leads to Meta, the cost-benefit is low.
P4
High
Owner: Ammar
Deliverables
  • Review budget allocations with Alexi, Colton, and Em. Determine whether this is creative, targeting, or both.
  • Consider pausing broad prospecting. Audiences are too broad and not improving.
  • Build lookalikes from HOT converters. Retarget website visitors with product-specific creative.
  • Test new creative focused on education and social proof, not discounts.
  • Review Google Generic allocation toward high-intent keywords.
  • Weekly lead-quality scorecard: CPL by temperature, revenue per lead, 30-day cohort CVR by channel.
Investigate extended-sale performance and tighten the CRM loop
Why it matters
The UK second sale week degrades quickly, which we do not see in other markets. By late 2025 we were generating less revenue in extended sale weeks than in full-price weeks, likely because Sales were absorbing the demand. We need to understand why this pattern is unique to the UK.
P5
Medium
Owner: Ammar
Deliverables
  • Week-1 vs week-2 sale performance breakdown: revenue, orders, AOV, discount rate, source mix
  • Review email flows and customer journey to isolate whether the issue is cadence, fatigue, sales responsiveness, or event structure
  • CRM audit: time-to-first-contact, contact attempt rate, follow-up cadence
  • Klaviyo sale-sequence review: map current flow, identify gaps
  • Test a compressed sale format if the data supports it
Build PDP and content journey for colder audiences
Why it matters
PDPs and the site journey are built for high-intent visitors. Colder leads need education, social proof, and comparison content before they are ready to buy. We do not currently have that.
P6
High
Owner: Ammar
Deliverables
  • Get the PDP audit from Mike or do it ourselves
  • Buyer's guide was not hooked up until recently. Link it from Meta ads and nurture flows.
  • Add customer galleries and video testimonials to PDPs
  • Launch the quiz (working draft ready)
  • Exit intent on PDPs offering the buyer's guide to visitors who have not added to cart
  • Review nurture sequences for focus
Review pricing and discount strategy
Why it matters
We have priced out the lower end of the segment. Pergola ASP has risen from €2,965 to €4,228 while unit sales are down from 457 to 247. There is no sub-£3,000 pergola option. Discounting is down 30% YoY, and below 18% discount, CVR drops to 0.02% outside Sale weeks.
P7
High
Owner: Ammar
Deliverables
  • Review pricing structure against the unit decline and the 18%/20% CVR threshold
  • Have a defined plan for how we will launch the discounted units
  • Analyse whether a sub-£3,000 entry-point SKU would capture demand currently lost
  • Track whether entry-point buyers upgrade via accessories or return for a second purchase
PriorityWhatOwnerTimeline
P1Complete full checkout root cause analysis with E-CommAmmar[TBC]
P2Reset the campaign cadenceEmily[TBC]
P3Rebuild the Evergreen setup with lower-funnel targetingEmily[TBC]
P4Reallocate budget on downstream yield and lead qualityAmmar[TBC]
P5Investigate extended-sale performance and tighten the CRM loopAmmar[TBC]
P6Build PDP and content journey for colder audiencesAmmar[TBC]
P7Review pricing and discount strategyAmmar[TBC]

Q2 outlook

I will have an updated Q2 forecast by end of this week, reflecting the March close, the recovery actions above, and the glass backlog revenue now flowing through.